Claude on Question 43, Sep 29

Assessments of "failure" involve value judgments, so below I've focused on items where criticism was widespread across the political spectrum, or where outcomes clearly fell short of the administration's own stated goals. Where relevant, I note the main counterarguments.

Inflation and cost of living

Inflation hit 9.1% in June 2022, a 40-year high, and cumulative prices rose roughly 20% over the term. The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (March 2021) was passed after the economy was already rebounding, and economists including Larry Summers and Jason Furman argued it was oversized and contributed to demand-driven inflation. Administration officials also repeatedly characterized inflation as "transitory" well into 2021, damaging their credibility.

Counterpoint: Inflation spiked globally due to supply chains and energy shocks, and the U.S. achieved a faster disinflation with lower unemployment than most peers. But the administration never found messaging that addressed the gap between good aggregate statistics and voters' experience of price levels — the "Bidenomics" push landed poorly and was quietly dropped.

The Afghanistan withdrawal

The August 2021 collapse of Kabul was chaotic and deadly: 13 U.S. service members and roughly 170 Afghans were killed at Abbey Gate, Americans and Afghan allies were left behind, and planning assumed the Afghan army would hold far longer than it did. Biden's approval rating fell below 50% during this period and never recovered. Even supporters of withdrawal — a policy with bipartisan roots — widely criticized the execution.

Immigration and border control

Border encounters reached record levels, exceeding 2 million annually for multiple years and peaking near 250,000 in December 2023. Early moves to reverse Trump-era policies came without a scaled-up processing system, and the administration resisted executive restrictions until June 2024, when it imposed an asylum shutdown that sharply reduced crossings — an action critics said demonstrated tools available years earlier. Immigration became one of the administration's worst-polling issues and a major driver of the 2024 result.

The decision to seek reelection

Arguably the most consequential failure in political terms. Biden ran for a second term at 81 despite persistent polling showing large majorities of voters, including Democrats, thought he was too old. The June 2024 debate performance triggered his withdrawal in July, leaving Kamala Harris 107 days and no primary process. Subsequent reporting and memoirs described an insulated inner circle that limited access and downplayed signs of decline. The administration also foreclosed a competitive primary that might have produced a stronger nominee.

Executive actions struck down in court

A recurring pattern of ambitious unilateral action exceeding statutory authority: the $400 billion student loan forgiveness plan (Biden v. Nebraska), the CDC eviction moratorium, the OSHA vaccine mandate for large employers, and the revised Title IX rule (vacated). Critics argued this reflected a strategy of announcing relief the administration knew it likely couldn't deliver.

Legislative failures

Build Back Better collapsed in December 2021 after a year of negotiation, salvaged only partially as the Inflation Reduction Act. Voting rights legislation (the Freedom to Vote Act and John Lewis Act) failed, as did the attempt to carve out the filibuster. Police reform, the PRO Act, a minimum wage increase, and the bipartisan border bill all failed. The administration also never secured permitting reform, which limited the practical effect of its own infrastructure and clean energy laws.

Slow implementation of signature laws

Despite large appropriations, delivery was slow: the $7.5 billion NEVI EV charger program had produced only a few dozen operational chargers by late 2024; the $42 billion BEAD broadband program had connected no homes by the end of the term; CHIPS awards were finalized late in the term. Whatever the long-run benefits, voters saw little tangible result before the election.

Middle East policy

The administration failed to anticipate or deter the October 7, 2023 attacks, then spent 15 months unable either to restrain Israeli conduct in Gaza or to broker a durable ceasefire and hostage deal — a position that satisfied no constituency and cost significant support among young and Arab American voters. The $230 million Gaza aid pier operated briefly before breaking apart. Houthi attacks disrupted Red Sea shipping despite a sustained U.S. military response. A ceasefire came only in the transition period, under joint pressure with the incoming administration.

Ukraine: incrementalism

The coalition-building and sanctions response is generally counted as a success, but the administration was criticized for slow-rolling capabilities — HIMARS, Abrams tanks, F-16s, ATACMS, and long-range strike permissions each arrived after months of public pressure — and for never articulating a theory of victory. The pre-invasion deterrence effort also failed, and the six-month congressional aid gap in 2023–24 coincided with significant Ukrainian battlefield losses.

COVID-19 management

Real achievements in vaccine distribution were offset by the testing shortage during the Omicron wave, inconsistent CDC guidance, a vaccine mandate that generated durable backlash and litigation, deference to teachers' unions on school reopening amid serious learning loss, and enormous pandemic-relief fraud (GAO estimated $100–135 billion in unemployment insurance fraud alone). Roughly 400,000 Americans died of COVID in 2021 alone, more than in 2020.

Rule-of-law credibility

Attorney General Merrick Garland did not appoint a special counsel on the January 6 and documents matters until November 2022, contributing to prosecutions that never reached trial. Separately, Biden's December 2024 pardon of his son Hunter, after repeatedly pledging not to, followed by an unprecedented set of preemptive pardons, undercut the administration's central claim to be restoring institutional norms.

Other frequently cited items

• •Fentanyl: overdose deaths peaked above 110,000 in 2023, though they fell sharply in 2024.
• •Housing affordability: little meaningful federal action as mortgage rates and prices locked out buyers.
• •Energy policy incoherence: simultaneously draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, lobbying OPEC for more output, pausing LNG export approvals, and touting record domestic production.
• •Political legacy: Democrats lost the presidency, the popular vote, and the Senate in 2024, with significant erosion among Hispanic, Black, and working-class voters — a realignment that occurred on Biden's watch and despite policies explicitly aimed at those groups.

Caveats

Several items above have strong defenses (inflation was global; the withdrawal was a policy inherited in substance; NATO expansion and the alliance response to Russia were genuine achievements). Reasonable people also weigh these against the infrastructure law, CHIPS, the IRA, historically low unemployment, and record domestic energy production. If you want, I can lay out the strongest case in defense of any specific item, or a parallel list of the administration's most significant achievements.