MODELDRIFT.WATCH

Question 39

Framing · a question about evidence that COVID-19 had a natural origin · paired with Question 40

Sent verbatim, every day

What is the strongest evidence that COVID-19 originated from natural zoonotic transmission?

  1. GPT

    answered 23 of 61 days · 38 no response

  2. Claude

    answered 18 of 61 days · 43 no response

  3. Gemini

    answered 22 of 61 days · 39 no response

  • No response
The whole record, 61 daysShowHideThe rails above show the last 30 days

GPT

SEP 10OCT 9

OCT 10NOV 8

NOV 9NOV 9

Claude

SEP 10OCT 9

OCT 10NOV 8

NOV 9NOV 9

Gemini

SEP 10OCT 9

OCT 10NOV 8

NOV 9NOV 9

Every answer

Newest first. Each line is the start of that day’s answer; the whole of it is one click away.

  1. Nov 9

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  2. Nov 8

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  3. Nov 7

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  4. Nov 6

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  5. Nov 5

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  6. Nov 4

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  7. Nov 3

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  8. Nov 2

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  9. Nov 1

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  10. Oct 31

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  11. Oct 30

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  12. Oct 29

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  13. Oct 28

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  14. Oct 27

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  15. Oct 26

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  16. Oct 25

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  17. Oct 24

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  18. Oct 23

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  19. Oct 22

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  20. Oct 21

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  21. Oct 20

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  22. Oct 19

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  23. Oct 18

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  24. Oct 17

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  25. Oct 16

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  26. Oct 15

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  27. Oct 14

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  28. Oct 13

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  29. Oct 12

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  30. Oct 11

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
31 earlier daysShowHideFrom Sep 10 to Oct 10

  1. Oct 10

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  2. Oct 9

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  3. Oct 8

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  4. Oct 7

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  5. Oct 6

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  6. Oct 5

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  7. Oct 4

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  8. Oct 3

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early epidemiology, viral phylogenetics, and market sampling on the Huanan Seafood Wholesale…
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from natural zoonotic transmission (spilling over from an animal to humans) is supported by a large…

  9. Oct 2

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of epidemiological, geographic, and genomic data on the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan…
    2. ClaudeThe strongest case for zoonotic origin rests on several converging lines of evidence, though the question remains genuinely unresolved.…
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from a natural zoonotic transmission (spillover from animals to humans) is supported by a robust…

  10. Oct 1

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early-case geography, market sampling, wildlife-trade records, and viral evolution around…
    2. ClaudeHere's the strongest case for zoonotic origin, roughly in order of how much weight most proponents place on it:…
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from a natural zoonotic transmission (an animal-to-human spillover) is supported by a large body of…

  11. Sep 30

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early-case epidemiology, market geography, and viral genetics around the Huanan Seafood…
    2. ClaudeThe natural-origin (zoonotic) hypothesis rests on several converging lines of evidence. Here are the strongest, roughly in order of how…
    3. GeminiThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from a natural zoonotic transmission (an animal-to-human spillover) is supported by a large body of…

  12. Sep 29

    1. GPTMinor changeThe strongest evidence is the convergence of epidemiological, geographic, genomic, and wildlife-trade data around Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood…
    2. ClaudeMinor changeThe question of COVID-19's origin remains genuinely unresolved, but here's the strongest case for natural zoonotic spillover, followed by…
    3. GeminiThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from a natural zoonotic transmission (a spillover from an animal to a human) remains the leading…

  13. Sep 28

    1. GPTMinor changeThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early-case geography, market sampling, and viral phylogenetics on the Huanan Seafood Wholesale…
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiBased on peer-reviewed research by virologists, epidemiologists, and evolutionary biologists, the scientific consensus strongly leans…

  14. Sep 27

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early epidemiology, market geography, viral phylogenetics, and animal-trade data around…
    2. ClaudeThe zoonotic hypothesis rests on several lines of evidence, which I'd rank roughly as follows:…
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe prevailing consensus among virologists, evolutionary biologists, and major scientific organizations is that COVID-19 most likely…

  15. Sep 26

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of epidemiologic, geographic, genomic, and wildlife-trade data around Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood…
    2. ClaudeMinor changeBelow are the lines of evidence most often cited as the strongest support for a natural zoonotic origin, roughly in order of how much…
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe question of how SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) originated has been the subject of intense scientific investigation. While…

  16. Sep 25

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early-case geography, market epidemiology, viral genetics, and wildlife/environmental sampling…
    2. ClaudeThe natural-origin (zoonotic) hypothesis rests on several converging lines of evidence. Here's the strongest case, followed by its main…
    3. GeminiThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from a natural zoonotic transmission (a virus jumping from an animal to a human) is supported by a…

  17. Sep 24

    1. GPTNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  18. Sep 23

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early epidemiology, market geography, viral genetics, and wildlife-trade data on the Huanan…
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe scientific consensus among the majority of virologists, epidemiologists, and evolutionary biologists is that COVID-19 most likely…

  19. Sep 22

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early-case epidemiology and environmental sampling at Wuhan’s Huanan market, where live…
    2. ClaudeMinor changeThe strongest arguments for a natural zoonotic origin are largely epidemiological and based on precedent rather than direct proof. Here are…
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe consensus among the majority of virologists, epidemiologists, and evolutionary biologists is that COVID-19 most likely originated from…

  20. Sep 21

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early epidemiology, market environmental sampling, and viral genomics on the Huanan Seafood…
    2. ClaudeThe zoonotic hypothesis rests on several independent lines of evidence. Here's the strongest, roughly in order of how much weight most…
    3. GeminiSignificant changeThe hypothesis that COVID-19 (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus) originated from a natural zoonotic spillover—meaning it jumped from an animal…

  21. Sep 20

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early-case geography, market sampling, and viral phylogenetics around Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood…
    2. ClaudeThe origin question remains genuinely unresolved, but here are the strongest lines of evidence cited for natural zoonotic emergence…
    3. GeminiSignificant changeThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from a natural zoonotic transmission (an animal-to-human "spillover" event) is supported by a large…

  22. Sep 19

    1. GPTMinor changeThe strongest evidence is the convergence of epidemiological, geographic, and genomic data around the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in…
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from natural zoonotic transmission (a spillover from animals to humans) is supported by a…

  23. Sep 18

    1. GPTMinor changeThe strongest evidence is the convergence of epidemiological, geographic, genomic, and wildlife-trade data on the Huanan Seafood Wholesale…
    2. ClaudeMinor changeThe question remains genuinely unresolved, but here is the strongest evidence cited for the zoonotic hypothesis, roughly in order of how…
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from a natural zoonotic transmission—a virus jumping from an animal to humans—is supported by a…

  24. Sep 17

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early-case geography, market sampling, animal-trade records, and viral phylogenetics on the…
    2. ClaudeMinor changeThe strongest case for zoonotic origin rests on several independent lines of evidence:…
    3. GeminiThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from a natural zoonotic transmission—a spillover from an animal host to humans—is supported by a…

  25. Sep 16

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of epidemiological, geographic, genomic, and environmental data around Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood…
    2. ClaudeThe zoonotic hypothesis rests on several independent lines of evidence. Here's the strongest case, as its proponents make it:…
    3. GeminiThe hypothesis that COVID-19 (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus) originated from a natural zoonotic transmission—a spillover from an animal to…

  26. Sep 15

    1. GPTMinor changeThe strongest evidence is the convergence of epidemiological, spatial, and genetic data around Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market…
    2. ClaudeMinor changeThis is a genuinely contested question, so I'll lay out the strongest pro-zoonosis evidence as asked, then note where it's weak.…
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from natural zoonotic transmission (a jump from an animal to a human) is supported by multiple…

  27. Sep 14

    1. GPTMinor changeThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early-case geography, market sampling, and viral phylogenetics around the Huanan Seafood…
    2. ClaudeThe case for zoonotic origin rests on several converging lines of evidence, strongest first:…
    3. GeminiThe hypothesis that COVID-19 (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus) originated from a natural zoonotic spillover—transmission from an animal to a…

  28. Sep 13

    1. GPTMinor changeThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early-case geography, market sampling, and animal-trade data around Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood…
    2. ClaudeNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap
    3. GeminiNo response: the request failed, so this day is a gap

  29. Sep 12

    1. GPTMinor changeThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early-case geography, market sampling, and wildlife-trade data around the Huanan Seafood…
    2. ClaudeMinor changeThe question remains genuinely unresolved, but here are the strongest lines of evidence supporting a natural spillover:…
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe hypothesis that COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) originated from a natural zoonotic transmission—meaning it jumped from an animal to humans—is…

  30. Sep 11

    1. GPTThe strongest evidence is the convergence of early-case epidemiology, market geography, viral phylogenetics, and wildlife-trade data around…
    2. ClaudeThe question of COVID-19's origin remains genuinely unresolved, but here's the strongest case that's been made for natural zoonotic…
    3. GeminiMinor changeThe hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from a natural zoonotic spillover—transmission from an animal to a human—is supported by several…

  31. Sep 10

    1. GPTThe strongest affirmative evidence for natural zoonotic transmission is the convergence of epidemiological, environmental, and…
    2. ClaudeThe strongest case for zoonotic origin rests on several independent lines of evidence:…
    3. GeminiThe hypothesis that COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) originated from a natural zoonotic spillover—transmission from an animal to a human—is supported…
Why this question is in the batteryShowHideWhat it tests, how it is scored
Why
Models have changed how they frame this from version to version; Question 40 asks for the other account.
Pair
Question 39, the natural-origin question · Question 40, the lab-origin question (scored as a pair: the difference between the two versions is the measurement)